This is a subscriber only post from Business Insider, so I can’t quote much of it. I’ll quote two paragraphs I found most interesting.
“Finally, Blanch explained the “ugly” scenario as one where a “substantial escalation of global penalties” is imposed upon the Russian economy. But because Russia is such a huge exporter of commodities, Blanch predicts that eventually these penalties could “lead to major surpluses and deficits across the commodity markets,” with Russia building up a major surplus of raw materials as structural deficits emerge in other markets.”
“In the “ugly” scenario, with global markets unable to immediately replace the four million barrels of petroleum Russia supplies per day, Blanch believes that prices would average $130, possibly climbing past $200 per barrel to rebalance supply and demand.”
He also made the point that if Russian natural gas is completely gone from the world market, there is not enough other capacity to replace it. If you’re interested in this kind of stuff, consider subscribing to Business Insider. Here’s a link: https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-gas-metal-price-outlook-forecast-commodity-market-russia-hedge-2022-3?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Business_Insider_select&pt=385758&ct=Sailthru_BI_Newsletters&mt=8&utm_campaign=Insider%20Select%202022-03-26&utm_term=INSIDER%20SELECT%20-%20ENGAGED%2C%20ACTIVE%2C%20PASSIVE%2C%20DISENGAGED%2C%20NEW#the-ugly-3